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道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法  高清版图书  现货图书,当天发货,推荐购买  可选购买高质量WORD格式
电子书价格:8元 如何计算价格
作  者:裴欣
出 版 社:北京交通大学出版社 出版年份:2013 年
ISBN:9787512113572 页数:156 页
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图书介绍:本书在对现有道路交通安全评估研究进行综述分析的基础上, 建立了基于完全贝叶斯方法的道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法。书中将其核心--道路事故风险与伤亡程度双层综合评价模型分别应用于信号灯交叉口和道路路段, 研究道路设计要素、危险暴露量和车速在路口和路段交通安全分析中的作用。
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图书封面及目录

1.1.书名页
1.2.版权页
1.3.前言页
1.5.目录页
1.12.CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
2.12.1.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
2.14.1.2 OBJECTIVES
2.16.1.3 BOOK STRUCTURE
1.18.CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.18.2.1 EVALUATION CRITERIA AND PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE
3.19.2.1.1 Role of exposure in road safety analyses
3.20.2.1.2 Predictive models for crash occurrence
3.22.2.1.3 Predictive models for crash severity
3.24.2.1.4 Integrated models
2.25.2.2 METHODS OF ANALYSES
3.26.2.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation
3.26.2.2.2 Full Bayesian method
2.28.2.3 RISK FACTORS
3.28.2.3.1 Speed and road safety
3.30.2.3.2 Geometric and operational factors and road safety
3.31.2.3.3 Weather conditions and road safety
2.31.2.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.32.CHAPTER 3 MODELING FRAMEWORK
2.32.3.1 MODELING APPROACH
3.33.3.1.1 Crash frequency models
3.40.3.1.2 Crash severity models
3.42.3.1.3 Joint probability models
2.48.3.2 ESTIMATION METHOD
3.48.3.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation method
3.50.3.2.2 Bayesian method
2.60.3.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.61.CHAPTER 4 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
2.61.4.1 INTRODUCTION
2.63.4.2 DATA
2.68.4.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION
3.68.4.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence
3.70.4.3.2 Probability function for crash severity
3.71.4.3.3 Joint probability function
2.72.4.4 RESULTS
2.74.4.5 DISCUSSION
3.75.4.5.1 Quadrant 1:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence and crash severity
3.76.4.5.2 Quadrant 2:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence only
3.77.4.5.3 Quadrant 3:Significant factors affecting crash severity only
2.77.4.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.79.CHAPTER 5 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR ROAD SEGMENTS
2.79.5.1 INTRODUCTION
3.79.5.1.1 Road safety on road segments
3.81.5.1.2 Role of exposure and speed in road safety analysis
2.82.5.2 DATA
3.83.5.2.1 Crash database
3.86.5.2.2 Speed measurement
3.88.5.2.3 Traffic volume and exposure
3.89.5.2.4 Explanatory factors
3.90.5.2.5 Data summary
2.93.5.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION
3.93.5.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence
3.94.5.3.2 Probability function for crash severity
3.95.5.3.3 Joint probability functions
2.96.5.4 RESULTS
2.100.5.5 DISCUSSION
3.100.5.5.1 Speed and road safety
3.103.5.5.2 Effects of explanatory factors
2.104.5.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.106.CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS
2.106.6.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
2.108.6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
3.108.6.2.1 Alternative models in an integrated modeling framework
3.109.6.2.2 Bayesian updating function with prior information
3.110.6.2.3 Disaggregated safety analysis
1.111.APPENDIX A MOVING OBSERVER METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION
2.111.A.1 INTRODUCTION
2.113.A.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT
2.115.A.3 MODEL CALIBRATION
2.118.A.4 MODEL VALIDATION
2.119.A.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.120.APPENDIX B GPS PROBE METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION
2.120.B.1 INTRODUCTION
2.122.B.2 DATA
2.123.B.3 METHODOLOGY
3.123.B.3.1 Models for average travel speed
3.125.B.3.2 Models for speed dispersion
3.125.B.3.3 Full Bayesian method
2.126.B.4 RESULTS
3.126.B.4.1 Average travel speed
3.133.B.4.2 Speed dispersion
2.134.B.5 DISCUSSION
3.134.B.5.1 Average travel speed
3.136.B.5.2 Speed dispersion
2.136.B.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1.137.REFERENCES
   
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